Post-Election Battle
From the Desk of Erin D. Eiras, F.A.
November 7, 2012
Dear Valued Investor,
After
hundreds of hours of debates by various candidates, well over a billion dollars
spent on political attack ads, and a seemingly endless barrage of news
coverage, the 2012 election battle is finally over. Now the fighting really
begins.
The hard-fought election will likely be
followed by more fighting in a divisive and bitter “lame duck” session in
Congress that runs from November 13 through year-end. The stakes are high as those
on Capitol Hill seek to mitigate the budget bombshell of tax increases and
spending cuts, known as the fiscal cliff, due to hit on January 1. The two parties
have very different visions of what a deal should look like. Failure to reach a
compromise in the coming weeks could lead to a recession and bear market for
stocks in early 2013.
However, a deal is in the best interest of
those on Capitol Hill. The Republicans have a lot of items to lose that are
important to them in foregoing a deal with Democrats: the Bush tax cuts would
expire and the looming spending cuts hit defense spending hard while not really
impacting the big entitlement programs (such as Social Security, Medicare,
Medicaid, and Affordable Care Act). To avoid being blamed for a return to
recession on their watch, Democrats may only need to compromise on extending
the middle-class tax cuts, which President Obama already communicated his
support of during his campaign, and delaying the impact of some of the spending
cuts.
While a deal may be likely, there are risks
for investors. With the S&P 500 having risen back to within 10% of all-time
highs in October, markets seem confident that the Senate Democrats will quickly
find a compromise with House Republicans to avoid going over the fiscal
cliff. However, a compromise may be hard to reach. Recall
that the gridlock in Washington
was no help to markets in 2011, as the unwillingness to compromise on both
sides of the aisle led to the debt ceiling debacle last August, which sent the
S&P 500 down over 10% in a few days despite the ultimate approval of the
increase to the debt ceiling.
Despite the risks, there is room for guarded
optimism. If there ever were a time to enact long-term fiscal discipline, now
is that time. The United States’
large and unsustainable budget deficits helped push total U.S. debt over
100% of GDP in 2012. Previously unmentionable as part of the “third-rail” of
politics, wide-reaching bipartisan proposals have been unveiled to put the United States
back on a path to fiscal sustainability. A long-term solution of permanent
changes to tax rates and entitlement programs as well as ending the battles
over the debt ceiling could emerge in 2013. This would be welcomed by the
markets and lift the uncertainty plaguing business leaders and investors alike.
The battle is likely to result in a
compromise that averts the worst case outcome, but the negotiations themselves,
coming on the heels of hard-fought election battles, may drive market swings in
the days and weeks ahead. Fortunately, the lowest valuations for stocks in 20
years may help to limit downside and create potential investment opportunities.
As always, I encourage you to contact me if you have
questions.
Best regards,
Erin D. Eiras
Wealth Manager / Financial Advisor
Important Disclosures
The opinions voiced in this material are for general
information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or
recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be
appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced
is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged
and cannot be invested into directly.
The economic
forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there
can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The Standard
& Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks
designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes
in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Standard
& Poor’s 500 is an unmanaged index, which cannot be invested into directly.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This
information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax,
legal or investment planning advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific
tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
This
research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
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FDIC/NCUA Insured | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value | Not
Guaranteed by any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union
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